Geopolitics
6 min read
WW3 Fears Rise as Putin Eyes Tiny NATO Country
Daily Express
January 18, 2026•4 days ago

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Analysts warn Vladimir Putin may escalate his ambitions beyond Ukraine, potentially targeting NATO countries like Estonia. Experts fear Russia could exploit Russian-speaking populations, as seen in Narva, to destabilize NATO and weaken Western unity. Russia is also believed to be strengthening its influence in Georgia and may target Moldova.
Vladimir Putin appears to be eyeing a new stage in his geopolitical ambitions, with analysts warning his next moves could extend beyond Ukraine. Experts fear the Russian leader may be preparing an escalation, designed to intimidate NATO and weaken Western unity.
One potential target repeatedly mentioned is Narva, a Russian-speaking city on the Estonian border that sits directly on NATO's frontline. Tim Wilsey, a former diplomat and professor at King's College London, has shared his theory with The Sun.
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He said: "There is a really good chance that Putin will get a favourable deal, favourable to him, and that he will trumpet it domestically as a triumph."
The former diplomat added: "I think he's going to need time to recover. The Russian army is in a dreadful state and it's going to take a while to recover. My bet is three years. I expect Vladimir Putin to have a good year in 2026.
"I don't think for a moment that Putin's project is finished."
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According to Wilsey, the Russian leader has already strengthened Moscow's influence in other regions.
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He said: "He pretty much got Georgia under his wing."
He warned that Moldova could be next, describing it as "very vulnerable."
"There is a real risk he may start nibbling away at the edges of Ukraine just to see how strong these so-called assurances are actually going to be," he added.
Another hotspot that could provoke NATO tension is Narva.
Wilsey said: "The one I've always thought is very dangerous is Narva, which has an 80% Russian population. Do we really believe that the United States is going to go to war for one town in Estonia? I'm not sure I do anymore."
He continued: "Influencing of politicians, buying of politicians, sabotage, assassination, use of drones over airports. All of this stuff meant to destabilise us."
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