Ventas (VTR) Stock: Unpacking Valuation After Recent Price Surge

Ventas stock reaction and key metrics Ventas (VTR) has been drawing fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at US$78.45 and showing mixed returns over the past week, month and past 3 months. For context, the real estate investment trust reports annual revenue of US$5.54b and net income of US$238.01m, with recent annual revenue and net income growth figures of 13.07% and 24.79% respectively. Recent trading reflects a pick up in momentum, with a 1 day share price return of 1.99% and a 90 day share price return of 9.72%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 36.94% and 5 year total shareholder return of 89.48% point to stronger gains over a longer holding period. If Ventas has caught your eye, it can be useful to compare it with other healthcare focused real estate names by scanning as your next stop. With Ventas trading at US$78.45 against an analyst price target of US$85.65 and an estimated intrinsic value implying a 24.68% discount, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued On this narrative, Ventas' fair value sits at US$85.65 versus the last close at US$78.45, setting up a valuation gap built on detailed growth and margin assumptions. The analysts have a consensus price target of $77.389 for Ventas based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.9 billion, earnings will come to $443.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 121.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%. Curious what combination of double digit revenue growth, higher margins and a triple digit P/E multiple has to line up to support that price tag? The full narrative lays out the exact earnings path and discount rate that underpin this higher fair value, so you can compare those assumptions with your own view. Result: Fair Value of $85.65 (UNDERVALUED) However, the story could shift quickly if senior housing occupancy stalls in the low 80% range or if acquisition and integration plans fall short of expectations. Another View: Market Ratios Send A Different Signal Our fair value work points to an 8.4% undervaluation, but the current P/S ratio of 6.6x tells a tougher story. That is richer than peers at 5.6x, the North American Health Care REITs average of 4.7x, and even the 5.8x fair ratio our model suggests the market could move toward. If sentiment cools, there may be limited room for the share price to stretch that gap further. Build Your Own Ventas Narrative If parts of this story do not line up with your view, or you prefer to lean on your own research, you can pull the same numbers, stress test the assumptions, and shape a personal view of Ventas in just a few minutes with . A great starting point for your Ventas research is our analysis highlighting that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Ventas has helped sharpen your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas that fit different goals and risk levels. Spot potential value plays early by checking out and see which companies currently trade at a discount to their underlying cash flows. Explore AI-related themes by scanning for businesses tied to machine learning, automation, and data driven services. Strengthen your income stream by reviewing to find companies offering dividend yields above 3%. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.