What a 'Very Unlikely' US Invasion of Canada Might Entail

Article content The Canadian military would be “foolish” not to draw up plans on how to respond to a U.S. invasion, says an expert on Canada-U.S. relations. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS Enjoy the latest local, national and international news. Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events. Unlimited online access to National Post. National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. SUBSCRIBE FOR MORE ARTICLES Enjoy the latest local, national and international news. Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events. Unlimited online access to National Post. 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Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Sign In or Create an Account Email Address or Article content The Canadian Armed Forces is reportedly looking at employing insurgency-style tactics like those used in Afghanistan in the unlikely event that the U.S. military attacks Canada. Article content Article content “They’d be foolish if they didn’t, if only because Donald Trump has said he’s concerned about Greenland. He’s concerned about the threat from Russia and China in the Arctic. Sub out the word Greenland for the word(s) Baffin Island or Iqaluit or any other sort of place north and you’d have a potential for American troops up there,” said Asa McKercher, the Hudson Chair in Canada-U.S. Relations at St. Francis Xavier University’s Brian Mulroney Institute of Government. Article content Canada’s top soldier, Gen. Jennie Carignan, was out of the country Tuesday and unavailable for comment. Article content “As is routine, the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces conducts analysis on a variety of scenarios, both real and hypothetical, to ensure readiness,” Kened Sadiku, who speaks for DND, said Tuesday in an email. “As a matter of operational security, and as a critical element of our defence, we do not confirm such matters in public.” Article content While a U.S. invasion of Canada is “very, very, very unlikely,” McKercher said it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Article content After he was elected in 2024, Trump referred repeatedly to Canada as the 51st state. While his talk of annexation and how it would benefit Canada has dried up in recent months, Trump posted a doctored image overnight on his social media platform of a map showing Canada, Greenland and Venezuela covered in the U.S. flag. Article content Article content Article content “Donald Trump is treated in some ways like a toddler,” McKercher said. “He does silly things and people don’t believe him until he follows through.” Article content A Canadian insurgency would be effective because many Americans wouldn’t want Canada to be invaded, he said. Article content “This would create big problems potentially within the United States itself,” McKercher said. Article content Many Canadians would resent an American invasion, “and could make life difficult for Americans,” he said. Article content “If it came to that, what would prevent Canadian military members or insurgents from going across the border at any of the many, many points along our border that aren’t patrolled, and blowing up bombs in American cities? It’s inconceivable, but a crazy thing that I think clearly is on the mind of very serious people.” Article content Citing two unnamed senior government officials, The Globe and Mail reported that the model being developed “was a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan, which is an actionable and step‑by‑step directive for executing operations.” Article content McKercher said it’s “reasonable” to expect that Canada’s military would be unlikely to stave off a U.S. invasion for more than a day or two. Article content Article content “We have a very small military; they have a very effective military,” McKercher said. “They have the ability to destroy our command-and-control centres, target our logistics networks, they’re aware of where all our bases are. There’s not a lot of hiding that we could do, probably, from American cruise missiles and drones.” Article content Article content Read More Article content Canada’s former national security and intelligence adviser, Vincent Rigby, said Tuesday that a U.S. invasion “falls into the category of very low probability, but very high impact, to put it mildly.” Article content Trump “talks a lot of smack,” Rigby said. “It’s part of his playbook. It’s destabilizing.” Article content But the Canadian military is supposed to plan for all scenarios, said Rigby, a former top intelligence adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau who spent 14 years with Canada’s Department of National Defence.