Uganda Poised to Become East Africa's Fuel Hub with $4bn UAE Refinery Deal

After more than a decade of delays, the project is now advancing towards a Final Investment Decision, expected by July 2026, following the signing of key agreements between the Uganda National Oil Company and Alpha MBM Investments LLC, a Dubai-based firm. The refinery, planned for the Albertine Graben, is designed to process up to 60,000 barrels of crude oil per day once completed. For Uganda, the renewed momentum comes at a critical time as the country currently spends an estimated $2 billion each year importing petroleum products, a major drain on foreign exchange reserves and a contributor to domestic inflation. Officials see the refinery as central to reversing that trend by allowing Uganda to refine its own crude rather than exporting it in raw form. ADVERTISEMENT President Yoweri Museveni, who presided over the signing ceremony at State House in Entebbe, framed the project as part of a broader push to move Uganda up the value chain. He said the refinery was about ending the cycle of exporting raw materials and importing finished products, a pattern that has long constrained industrial growth across much of Africa. Under the new ownership structure, Alpha MBM Investments will hold a 60 percent equity stake, while UNOC will retain a 40 percent stake, according to the Uganda Investment Authority. The arrangement follows years of unsuccessful negotiations with previous partners and is being presented by Kampala as evidence of renewed investor confidence in the country’s oil sector. What does this mean for Uganda? The refinery is expected to process 60,000 barrels per day and reduce Uganda’s $2bn annual fuel import bill. [Photo by Luis TATO / AFP via Getty Images] BI Africa Beyond domestic considerations, the refinery is expected to play a regional role. Uganda aims to supply refined products to neighbouring markets such as South Sudan, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi, many of which currently depend on fuel imports routed through ports in Kenya and Tanzania. If realised, the project could reduce transport costs and improve supply reliability for landlocked economies in the region. ADVERTISEMENT The timing is also significant as global energy markets remain volatile, shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and rising demand across developing economies. Against this backdrop, African governments are increasingly prioritising local refining capacity to strengthen energy security and retain more value from natural resources. Uganda’s ambitions align with that continental trend that the refinery is expected to complement the country’s upstream oil developments and its planned export pipeline, anchoring Uganda more firmly within regional energy trade networks. Government officials have also highlighted the potential spillover benefits, with the Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa saying the project would generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs and help build domestic expertise in refining, petrochemicals, and associated services. She added that the refinery could act as a foundation for related industries, including fertiliser and petrochemical production, while opening opportunities for local firms to participate in supply chains. Analysts note that downstream investments linked to the refinery, such as storage facilities, pipelines, and industrial parks, could deepen Uganda’s manufacturing base, which remains modest relative to its population and growth targets. ADVERTISEMENT For Alpha MBM Investments, the deal reflects growing Gulf interest in African energy infrastructure, particularly projects backed by governments and supported by long-term demand growth. The partnership enables Uganda to proceed with detailed engineering work, financing arrangements, and regulatory approvals before the planned investment decision. While large refineries typically take several years to complete after FID, Ugandan authorities say early groundwork could help shorten timelines. Even so, challenges remain, including financing complexity, infrastructure coordination, and shifting global attitudes towards fossil fuels. Still, with contracts signed and a clear timetable in place, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for Uganda’s oil ambitions. If delivered as planned, the refinery could reshape the country’s energy economics and reinforce its aspiration to emerge as a regional refining hub, with implications that extend well beyond its borders.