Climate Change Threatens Tanzania's Coffee Output

DAR ES SALAAM: APPROXIMATELY 90 per cent of Tanzania’s coffee output comes from about 320,000 smallholder farmers, each typically managing around 200 coffee trees on small plots of 0.5–2 acres, underscoring the sector’s heavy dependence on fragmented, low-scale farming systems with implications for productivity, economies of scale and the provision of extension and market services. The country produces two main types of coffee: Arabica, which accounts for roughly 60.9 per cent of output, and Robusta, contributing 39.1 per cent. Arabica is grown across Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Tanga, Iringa, Mbeya, Kigoma, Manyara, Mwanza, Katavi, Mara, Njombe, Songwe, Rukwa, Geita and Ruvuma, while Robusta is concentrated in Kagera and Morogoro. Tanzania ranks as the fourthlargest coffee producer in Africa, following Ethiopia, Uganda and Ivory Coast, and continues to play a significant role in both Arabica and Robusta production. According to the latest USDA estimates, coffee output for the 2025/26 marketing year (July– June) is projected to rise to 1.45 million 60-kilogramme bags, up from 1.35 million bags the previous year. Robusta, particularly from Kagera, is driving this growth. Exports are expected to reach 1.37 million bags as increased output meets growing global demand, while domestic consumption is forecast to rise modestly to 85,000 bags, supported by urbanisation and government campaigns promoting coffee drinking, although tea remains the dominant beverage. Despite these gains, new research highlights mounting challenges for Tanzania’s coffee sector. Findings from the five-year Paradox of Climate-Smart Coffee (PACSMAC) project reveal that climate change has increased production costs and reduced yields, particularly for smallholder farmers. Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and the spread of diseases such as Coffee Berry Disease are placing significant pressure on households that rely heavily on coffee for income. “The intention is to support farmers through policy so that they can continue producing productively, increase their incomes and contribute to national economic growth,” said Prof Christine Noe, PACSMAC Coordinator and Principal of the College of Social Sciences at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM). ALSO READ: Who gets to tell Tanzania’s story in Washington — and at what cost? She emphasised that smallholders require stronger policy and practical support to sustain the industry. The PACSMAC project ran for five years at a total cost of 4.6bn/-, allocating 1.2bn/- to UDSM. The funding supported multidisciplinary research, capacity building, mentorship and training, including four PhD and two Master’s students. Researchers examined policies, market flows and the coffee value chain, focusing on regions such as Kyerwa in the Lake Zone, Rombo in the Northern Zone and Mbinga and Mbozi in the Southern Highlands. “The research showed that overall production costs have increased, while productivity has declined,” Prof Noe said. Northern farmers, particularly in areas with shrinking land sizes, are abandoning coffee cultivation, while southern farmers continue to expand where larger land areas remain. She highlighted the importance of professional extension services, noting that the shortage of agricultural officers has forced many farmers to rely on agro-input sellers for advice, which often prioritises business interests over agronomy. International researcher Prof Kristjan Jespersen, also a PACSMAC Coordinator, described the climate impacts on coffee production as unprecedented. “We are facing climate change effects we have never seen before,” he said, noting the existence of a “science market gap” that must be bridged to translate research into actionable policies and practical solutions for farmers. Prof Jespersen suggested that private sector actors establish a multi-stakeholder coordination platform linking government agencies, cooperatives, buyers and financial institutions to align climate objectives, market goals, farmers’ livelihoods and gender equality. At the same time, current climate interventions largely prioritise productivity, quality and export stability over householdlevel livelihood resilience and diversification strategies. Gender inequality further undermines resilience. Although gender commitments exist in policy, enforcement remains weak. Women continue to face insecure land rights, limited cooperative membership, restricted control over income and underrepresentation in leadership. Experts stress that gender equality must be a core pillar of sector governance to ensure sustainable coffee production. Assistant Director for Policy Research and Innovation at the Ministry of Agriculture, Dr Adela Ng’atigwa, warned that rising minimum temperatures are likely to reduce yields significantly if adaptation measures are not implemented. “Millions of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia and Tanzania are facing challenges that threaten their very existence in the coffee value chain,” she said, urging policymakers and private stakeholders to act on evidence-based recommendations, including resilient infrastructure, fair pricing models and farmer support programmes. Coffee remains a strategic export crop and a key source of rural livelihoods in Tanzania. Yet, climate change, shifting global buyer strategies and recent domestic regulatory reforms are reshaping the governance of the coffee sector in ways that increasingly disadvantage smallholder farmers. ALSO READ: Lake Victoria emerges strategic trade corridor via ports, SGR Despite extensive climate policies and numerous coffee-related interventions, these efforts largely prioritize production stability, quality upgrading and export performance rather than householdlevel livelihood resilience. Tanzania’s coffee value chain remains largely buyer-driven. Rising climate risks and procurement reforms intended to empower cooperatives have instead increased uncertainty, weakened long-term relationships between buyers and producers, and reduced access to agronomic support, quality control and social services. “The contribution of coffee to the national economy is significant,” said Dr Leonard Binamungu, Research Grant Coordinator and Acting Director of Research and Publications at UDSM. “It is crucial to study its full value chain to identify challenges and provide evidence-based policy solutions that ensure coffee continues to grow and contribute to national income.” He added that “collaborative research across multiple universities enhances quality and credibility. Coffee is important to both Tanzania and Ethiopia. Comparing challenges across countries helps identify solutions that can strengthen the value chain across Africa.” The University of Dodoma (UDOM) lecturer, Mwinamila Leonard, warned that climate change threatens coffee quality and could render some areas unsuitable for cultivation. “We encourage farmers to adopt improved farming methods and select suitable locations to mitigate climate impacts and preserve crop quality,” he said. The PACSMAC project was conducted collaboratively with Copenhagen Business School, Jimma University (Ethiopia), Basel University (Switzerland) and Lafayette College (USA). The interdisciplinary team, including geographers, political scientists and anthropologists, produced peer-reviewed publications, policy briefs and practical recommendations for smallholder farmers and sector stakeholders. Based on PACSMAC findings, experts recommend stabilising value chain relationships by reforming procurement and regulatory frameworks to incentivise long-term engagement between buyers and cooperatives, supporting adaptation investment, quality upgrading and social services. Cooperative capacity should be strengthened through finance, management, technical expertise and infrastructure to enable cooperatives to function as credible climate-adaptation institutions. Climate policies should shift focus from output alone to securing diversified, adaptive household livelihoods, including structured diversification and transition pathways in areas facing declining suitability. Adaptation strategies should move beyond agronomic solutions to strengthen institutions, collective action and social protection mechanisms. Gender equality must be institutionalised, with enforcement of land rights, cooperative participation, leadership opportunities and gender performance indicators embedded across extension, certification and finance programmes. Experts warn that the sector’s future depends not only on maintaining production and export volumes but also on strengthening smallholder resilience, cooperative capacity and gender equity. Policies focused solely on output and exports risk masking vulnerabilities among the farmers who form the backbone of Tanzania’s coffee industry. “The future of Tanzania’s coffee sector will depend on whether farmers are equipped to adapt, diversify and remain resilient in a rapidly changing environment,” Prof Noe concluded.