South Sudan Elections: Will They Finally Bring Peace?

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, has not had an election since its independence from Sudan in 2011. Per the 2018 power-sharing agreement, the election is set to happen this year in December 2026. Following numerous extensions, it will determine the peace process and political stability. This will be the first election South Sudanese will vote in as an independence country. The last election South Sudanese participated in was when it was part of Sudan in 2010, per the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in 2005. On December 22, 2025, the country’s National Elections Commission announced its readiness to conduct elections in December 2026. The commission stated that it will utilize the 2010 constituents according to the 2008 population census. The political reality of today is not accurately represented in the 2008 population census and lacks relevance. Most of the 2010 election constituents are either affected by conflicts or flooding that devastated parts of the country. Weak opposition Since independence, South Sudan has been under the rule of the SPLM. The SPLM’s long-term power is largely attributed to weak opposition parties and concocted conflicts. Parties to the Revitalized Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), including the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA), Other Political Parties (OPP), and the Political Former Detainees (PFDs), are sharply divided. Some are either bribed to join the ruling SPLM or politically corrupted with government positions. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) was the only main opposition that had a major impact on the SPLM, but it has become weaker with time. In 2018, the SPLM-IO was able to reach an agreement with the SPLM to reform political, military, and economic institutions, but it did not succeed. The SPLM-IO has disintegrated into Dr Riek’s SPLM-IO, Taban’s SPLM-IO, and now probably Par Kuol’s SPLM-IO. The former generals, such as Thomas Cirilo (from Equatoria region), former army chief, Gen. Paul Malong Awan (from Barh El Ghazal region), and former SPLM Secretary General, Pagan Amum (from Upper Nile Region), formed their parties outside the country to change the Juba regime. The Tumaini Peace Initiative was launched on May 9, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya to include all the holdout groups that have not signed the 2018 R-ARCSS. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) brought them under the Tumaini initiative, which also failed due to lack of political will. The United States of America ambassador to South Sudan, Michael J. Adler, used Christmas to send his message to South Sudanese leaders. He urged the country’s leadership to end the cycles of violence and foster national unity. The call is a result of ongoing insecurity, economic hardship, and fragile political transitions. New defections from the SPLM-ruling party On October 15, 2025 and December 28, 2025 respectively, former Minister of Defense and Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Nhial Deng Nhial from Warrap (home town of the President) suspended his membership from the SPLM party and formed his own party. The ex-military General (ex-Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations) and ambassador to South Africa Gen. Wilson Deng Kuoirot (from Jonglei State) launched his movement (National Uprising Movement/Army) with a military wing. He expressed his frustration with the Kiir regime and wanted it forcefully overthrown if Kirr didn’t step aside and hand over the country to a neutral leadership to organize the election. These heavyweight politicians and generals forced into exile declared their opposition abroad. They were instrumental to the first civil war of 21 years. The departure of Nhial Deng, a former Garang favourite, and General Deng Wek, both Dinka, reveals the dissatisfaction of some politicians under the Kiir regime. Pockets of conflict The ongoing reports of attacks in different parts of the country seem to signal that opposition forces are regrouping and planning to force Kiir out of power militarily. The opposition has resorted to violent means because the peace settlement cannot remove the regime in Juba. The other key players are the war entrepreneurs. They would want the status quo to remain because an election would institute the rule of law and may close the door to corruption. The opposition parties’ chance of challenging the SPLM in the election is limited due to shrinking political space in the country, which could result in violence if they are defeated at the polls. Marauding rebellion groups in the Upper Nile and Equatoria regions are overrunning towns and villages. Kiir’s only available option to neutralize the growing rebellion in the country is to release all political detainees and propose a peaceful transfer of power. The country may risk reverting to another war. In the event Kiir decides to hand over power to technocrats, the majority of opposition organizations operating inside and outside the country would likely abandon the war and prepare for elections. The political atmosphere in South Sudan is worrying and fragile. Conflicts are popping up everywhere in the country. Currently, candidates can’t crisscross the country and campaign. Mistrust among parties to the Agreement Given that mistrust among the parties to the R-ARCSS is on the rise due to divisions, the question is whether the factors that caused the previous extension have been addressed. The parties to the last extension promised South Sudan that this was the last extension, and the Revitalized Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) echoed the same. On December 23, 2025, the parties amended the R-ARCSS to delink the National Election Act 2012 (amendment in 2023) from the permanent constitution; however, the process wasn’t inclusive but predetermined by the SPLM and parties allied to it. On December 31, President Kiir hosted a state dinner and called on the nation to embrace peace and reject violence ahead of the election, while he was sending military helicopters to bomb the SPLM-IO areas in Jonglei State. The Troika countries (the USA, the United Kingdom, and Norway), in a statement on December 23, 2025, warned the major signatories to the agreement, particularly SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO, to end the armed attacks and decide on a way forward. The country risks going to war by not unifying forces under different parties in an agreement as it prepares for a national election. The success of the 2026 roadmap depends on the completion of the unification of the organized forces. Despites parties’ willingness to participate in the election, lack of political will, inadequate funding of the election, and lack of cohesion among the parties are still a challenge. According to the JMEC quarterly report (from July and September 2025), there have been persistent political and security violations by signatory parties. These violations and delays pose a serious threat to the country’s transition through an electoral process. Funding of the elections process The country is struggling to meet its financial obligations. For a year, the government has failed to pay salaries to civil servants and the army. Most of its embassies abroad have closed due to unpaid rental fees. To date, the government hasn’t disclosed sources of funding to conduct extensive elections. No member of the Troika countries has expressed an interest in funding the elections. This begs the question of whether a General Election can be conducted without funds. The civil population in South Sudan needs proper civic education. Civil society organizations have not yet started civic education. The country’s lack of civic education could increase the likelihood of irregularities during the election. Conclusion South Sudan is not ripe for elections when there are pockets of conflict everywhere. The country has not yet recovered from the crises of 2013 and 2018, and the possibility of post-election violence cannot be ruled out. Without reconciliation, elections on their own may even worsen the situation. The decision to delink the census from the permanent constitution-making process wasn’t inclusive of all signatories to the R-ARCSS, thus not made in good faith.