Top Small Cap Stocks to Watch: Dividend Hikes, CEO Changes & Market Movers

Canada’s S&P/TSX Small Cap Index (TXTW-I) hit a record 1,350.93 in early Wednesday trading and is up by about 63 per cent over the past 52 weeks. The Russell 2000 in the U.S. is up about 16 per cent over the past 52 weeks. It hit a record 2,692.23 on Tuesday. Small-cap summary MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY-T) stock rose on Wednesday after the company announced a 12-per-cent increase in its quarterly dividend. Before markets opened on Wednesday, the restaurant franchisor and operator, said the payment would increase from 33 cents per share to 37 cents per share. The new dividend will be payable on Feb. 13 to shareholders of record on Feb. 3 “This 12-per-cent dividend increase underscores the board of directors’ confidence in MTY’s ability to generate sustainable cash flow and deliver long-term value,” CEO Eric Lefebvre stated in a release. “It demonstrates our disciplined approach to capital allocation; returning cash to shareholders while maintaining the flexibility to invest in growth.” It’s the company’s 13th dividend increase since it initiated a dividend in November, 2010. Acumen Capital analyst Nick Corcoran noted that the dividend was suspended in April 2020 to preserve capital and reinstated at its pre-pandemic level in July 2021. “The dividend increase is in line with the capital allocation strategy,” he wrote in a note. “Recall, MTY has historically targeted a dividend of 15-20% of free cash flow.” He said no update was provided on the strategic review announced in November and added that MTY is expected to report fourth-quarter results in mid-February. ** North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) shares fell on Wednesday after the company announced that its president and CEO Joe Lambert has resigned “to pursue other opportunities.” Effective immediately, chief operating officer Barry Palmer has assumed the role of president and CEO while the company searches for a replacement. The company also confirmed that closing activities related to its acquisition of Iron Mine Contracting remain on schedule, with a targeted closing of this quarter. ** Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) stock rose on Wednesday after the company provided its 2026 budget and guidance and updated its five-year outlook. After markets closed on Tuesday, the company guided to a “profitable production growth forecast” reaching 105,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) annually by 2030. It said its finding and development (F&D) capital budget will be between between $325-million to $375-million in 2026, which is expected to deliver an annual average production of 81,000 to 84,000 boe/d. Production is expected to reach about 87,500 boe/d in the fourth 2026 at the high end of F&D capital expenditures, it stated. Birchcliff also said it expects adjusted funds flow of $430-million and free funds flow of $55-million to $105-million in 2026. “Birchcliff’s outlook for natural gas prices remains strong as it expects the addition of Train 2 of LNG Canada, further U.S. LNG projects and gas-fired power for data centres to drive the demand for natural gas in 2026 and beyond,” it stated. “Birchcliff is well positioned to take advantage of strengthening North American natural gas prices, with 54% of the Corporation’s natural gas production anticipated to be effectively sold in the NYMEX HH and Dawn sales markets and 46% sold at the AECO sales market in 2026. As Birchcliff currently has no fixed price commodity hedges in place, for every $0.10 change in each of the AECO, Dawn and NYMEX HH benchmark price for natural gas, Birchcliff’s estimated free funds flow for 2026 changes by $19.2 million (in aggregate)." Birchcliff expects to exit 2026 with total debt of $410-million to $460-million, resulting in a total debt to annual adjusted funds flow ratio of approximately 1.0 times at the midpoint of the total debt guidance range. National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne maintained his “outperform” and $9 target after the update. “A solid outcome to 2025 underpins continued momentum for reinvestment into 2026 and beyond; BIR is poised for a 10% return profile (vs. peers 14%) on a leverage of 0.7x (vs. peers 0.9x), while trading at a 2026e EV/DACF of 4.4x (vs. peers 5.7x),” he wrote in a note. Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Mueller also kept his “buy” rating and $9 target. “This year’s guidance tracks with the preliminary guidance provided last year, spending $325-375M to generate average annual production of 81,000-84,000 boe/d,” he wrote in a note. “Notably, the company anticipates reaching ~87,500 boe/d in Q4/26, which marks a notable milestone as this will fully utilize its existing infrastructure one year ahead of the prior plan.” Added Mr. Mueller: “Ultimately, this is expected to reduce per-unit costs by ~10% and sets the foundation for longer-term growth at Elmworth. On that end, BIR plans to reach FID on phase one of the project in late 2026/early 2027. This would include construction of the Goodfare gas plant (100 mmcf/d) with first gas expected in Q4/28, adding 16,000-18,000 boe/d.” ** Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (CFX-T) said the “go-shop” period has ended with no acquisition proposals following the takeover bid from Canfor Corp. (CFP-T). Canfor already owns about 54.8 per cent of Canfor Pulp and is offering to buy the rest. “During the go-shop period, Canfor Pulp was permitted to actively solicit, evaluate and enter into negotiations with third parties that expressed an interest in acquiring Canfor Pulp,” the company stated, adding that the period expired on Jan. 19. Canfor Pulp stated that it’s now subject to customary non-solicitation covenants with “fiduciary out” provisions. If Canfor Pulp terminates the agreement with Canfor to accept a superior proposal, it has to pay Canfor a $500,000 termination fee. Canfor is offering 0.0425 of a common share of Canfor Corp per Canfor Pulp share, or 50 cents in cash per Canfor Pulp share. ** Roots Corp. (ROOT-T) shares rose on Wednesday after the retailer announced a new 10-year strategic partnership with privately owned Canadian third-party logistics provider, Metro Supply Chain. After markets closed on Tuesday, Roots said its distribution is moving from its current company-operated facility to Metro Supply Chain’s facility in Ontario. “Metro Supply Chain brings deep expertise in complex, technology-enabled logistics that will enhance our omnichannel experience and support our long-term growth. This partnership with another global, Canadian-headquartered business strengthens our ability to scale and to better serve our global customer base,” said CEO Meghan Roach. ** Silvercorp Inc. (SVM-T) announced on Tuesday a deal to buy a 70-per-cent stake in Chaarat ZAAV, which holds the mining licence hosting the Tulkubash/Kyzyltash gold projects as well as surrounding exploration licenses in the Kyrgyz Republic, for $162-million in cash. It also struck an agreement with Kyrgyzaltyn, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Kyrgyz Republic, to turn the asset into a 70-per-cent joint venture, owned and operated by Silvercorp. Kyrgyzaltyn would receive a 30-per-cent free-carried interest. ** Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) shares fell on Tuesday after the meal kit company reported a drop in sales and wider loss for its first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. Before markets opened on Tuesday, Goodfood reported sales of $28-million for the for the 13 weeks ended Dec. 6. The result was down from $34.7-million for the same period a year earlier. Its net loss was $2.6 million or 3 cents per share, compared to a loss of $1.7-million or 2 cents a year earlier. “We are managing the business with a clear-eyed view of the market. The meal solutions category, particularly meal kits, remains under pressure, and we are not assuming a near-term recovery. Our focus is building a simpler, more resilient operating model that performs consistently at current volumes,” executive chairman Selim Bassoul said in a release. ** Lucara Diamond Corp. (LUC-T) shares slid this week after the company said it applied to the Toronto Stock Exchange for a financial hardship exemption to proceed with a previously announced non-brokered private placement to raise $165-million. It wants to be exempt from requirements to obtain shareholder approval, “on the basis that the company is in serious financial difficulty and the private placement is designed to address these financial difficulties in a timely manner.” The company said the funding will be used to address its liquidity shortfall to enable it to continue advancing the Karowe underground project “Lucara’s board and management remain fully committed to protecting long-term shareholder value while advancing the UGP, one of the world’s most significant high-value diamond developments,” CEO William Lamb stated in a release. “The application for the financial hardship exemption is a prudent and temporary step that provides the company with added flexibility as we complete this capital-intensive phase of development. Importantly, our underlying asset quality, operating discipline, and long-term value proposition remain unchanged, and we continue to work closely with our stakeholders to position Lucara for sustainable cash flow generation and value creation.” ** Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (CURA-T) shares fell this week after it announced preliminary unaudited fourth-quarter results alongside news of its decision to discontinue its hemp division. Before markets opened on Tuesday, the cannabis company said it discontinued the hemp division “due to recent federal legislation passed in November 2025 reducing the allowable amount of THC to a non-intoxicating level” and ceased operating in Missouri. It said that both business units combined accounted for about $2-million in revenue in the third quarter. It also said fourth-quarter revenue, excluding the discontinued businesses, is expected to be “at least” US$330-million, or about 1 per cent more than revenue of US$327.8-million for the same period a year earlier. The expectation is for revenue to come in at US$327.3-million, according to S&P Capital IQ. “Our preliminary Q4 results demonstrate that the ‘Return to Our Roots’ strategy has delivered clear impact, with solid revenue growth and sustained strong margins. We have also made the strategic decision to wind down our hemp business due to new federal regulations prohibiting hemp-derived THC products containing THC above 0.3%, and exit Missouri as a sub-scale presence in the state did not justify continued investment,” Curaleaf CEO Boris Jordan stated. The company said it plans to release its final fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results by early March. ** Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) provided a fiscal 2025 update and outlook for 2026 this week. Before markets opened on Monday, the company said it expects revenue of $2.1-billion for fiscal 2025, “generally in line with expectations for the year.” However, the company said adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization (adjusted OIBDA) will be about $323-million, “lower than originally planned due to the timing of the acquisitions, a soft freight environment, competitive pricing, and undisciplined competitors.” The company said it will release final results on Feb. 12. The company also said it expects growth in 2026 driven by anticipated improvements in freight demand and pricing as well as acquisitions. “In summary, we are optimistic that 2026 will be a record year for our organization. But we are also mindful that the markets can remain competitive for extended periods, reinforcing the need to prudently manage all costs, along with investing in new technologies, like robotics and data management tools, to improve productivity,” the company stated. Acumen Capital analyst Trevor Reynolds said the revenue forecast is roughly in line with his sales estimate of about $2.1-billion, while the adjusted OIBDA was below his estimate of $332.4-million. “Management highlights weak private sector investment in 2025 due to trade uncertainty resulting in flat economic activity, softer than expected freight volumes, and disrupted supply chains,” he wrote in a note. “Despite this backdrop, MTL delivered stable results and successfully completed the acquisition of Cole Group and Zion Trucking Ltd during the year.” Mr. Reynolds noted that MTL continues to target strategic acquisitions and “emphasize margins over market share through operational improvements.” Added Mr. Reynolds: “Overall, management is cautiously optimistic heading into 2026 and identified potential upside from ‘Nation Building Projects’ when shovels hit the dirt.“ He kept his “buy” rating and increased his target price to $20.50 per share from $17.25. ** Dynacor Gold Mines Ltd. (DNG-T) shares rose earlier this week after the company released better-than-expected preliminary results for the fourth quarter. It also released initial 2026 sales and net income guidance that exceeded analyst expectations. “Overall, the results indicate a return to strong operational performance at Veta Dorada, Dynacor’s gold processing plant in Peru, after ore supply issues and a reorganization earlier in 2025,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Yuri Lynk said in a Jan. 19 note. “The one negative we see is potentially higher than expected capex needs at the acquired Svetlana plant in Ecuador and a slight delay in the facility achieving 300-tpd of production.” He said fourth-quarter production increased 20 per cent year over year to 32,838 AuEq (gold equivalent), which was 22 per cent above his estimate, “and the second highest fourth-quarter result in the history of Veta Dorada.” Sales increased 87 per cent year over year to US$137-million, “well above our US$112 million estimate,” Mr. Lynk added. “EBITDA wasn’t provided, but the company did mention it saw improved recoveries and efficiencies compared to Q4/2024 due to operational changes implemented during the quarter,” he wrote, adding that initial 2026 guidance exceeded estimates. 2026 sales are expected to be between US$530-million and US$580-million compared to his estimate of US$480-million. “This outlook is based on production between 125,000 and 135,000 AuEq, well above our 112,000 AuEq estimate. Management assumes a 2026 gold price of US$4,200 per ounce, in line with our estimate of US$4,315 per ounce,” he wrote. “The higher than expected 2026 production guidance is due to our estimate not including any contributions from the 50-tpd pilot plant in Senegal or the acquired Svetlana plant in Ecuador. Management’s production outlook includes first ore from the Senegal and Ecuador plants. In a follow-up note on Jan. 20, Mr. Lynk reiterated his “buy” rating on the stock and increased his target to $8.50 from $8 after sponsoring a non-deal roadshow in Montreal. “Dynacor is the only publicly traded pure-play processor dedicated to producing gold sourced from the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) industry. Dynacor does not mine its ore, not only eliminating exploration risk but also reducing leverage to movements in the gold price,” he wrote. “We believe Dynacor’s competitive advantage lies in its ability to purchase and correctly price ethically sourced, fully traceable ore and to process ore grades with vastly different recovery rates purchased from over 700 ASMs.” Added Mr. Lynk: “We believe that for Dynacor’s multiple to expand, management must deliver on its growth strategy, building credibility with investors in the process, and adding geographic diversity and enhanced scale to the company’s investment case,” he wrote. ** ATS Corp. (ATS-T) said on Monday that its chief financial officer, Ryan McLeod, has resigned “to pursue an opportunity in an unrelated industry.” Anne Cybulski, vice-president, corporate controller, will serve as interim CFO while a search for a permanent replacement is conducted, the company said. CAE Inc. announced on Monday that Mr. McLeod would join the company as CFO effective Feb. 23. ** Richelieu Hardware Ltd. (RCH-T) announced this week the acquisition of Klassen Bronze, bringing its total number of private brands to 10. Klassen Bronze sells products such as letters, numbers, mailboxes, signs and key-cutting machines, and much more. “The acquisition of Klassen Bronze reinforces Richelieu’s market position and aligns with our “one stop shop” strategy, supported by our service centres in Calgary for Western Canada, Kitchener for Eastern Canada, and Chicago for the United States," the company stated. ** Upcoming small-cap earnings: Jan. 26: Cannara Biotech Inc. (LOVE-X) Jan. 27: AGF Management Ltd. (AGF-B-T) Jan. 28: Exco Technologies Limited (XTC-T) Jan. 29: Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T), Coveo Solutions Inc. (CVO-T), High Tide Inc. HITI-X, Champion Iron Ltd. (CIA-T) Feb. 5: Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI-T), Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS-T) Feb. 9: Silvercorp Inc. (SVM-T) Feb. 10: Morguard North American Residential REIT (MRG-UN-T), Stingray Group Inc. (RAY-A-B) Feb 11: Killam Apartment REIT (KMP-UN-T), Primaris REIT (PMN-UN-T), First Capital REIT (FCR-UN-T), Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T), Slate Grocery REIT (SGR-UN-T), Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T) Feb. 12: Interfor Corp. (IFP-T), Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) Feb. 13: Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T), Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) Feb. 17: CT REIT (CRT-UN-T), Feb. 18: Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T), KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T), Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC-T) Feb. 19: Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) Feb. 24: Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) Feb. 25: Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE-UN-T) Feb. 26: Pason Systems Inc. (PSI-T), Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) March 5: Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T), Thinkific Labs Inc. (THNC-T), Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T)