Rail Baltica's 2030 Deadline Unlikely, Reveals EU Audit

The European Court of Auditors has published a new report on the European Union's (EU) transport infrastructure, paying particular attention to the costs and deadlines of megaprojects, including Rail Baltica. The Baltic rail project Rail Baltica is highlighted in the report as having the greatest impact on the overall cost increase of EU megaprojects. Specifically, the official cost estimate for Rail Baltica included in the 2020 report was €5.8 billion (based on 2017 data). Even then, EU auditors warned that costs could rise even further. The promoters of the Rail Baltica project – the national implementers and the Baltic joint venture RB Rail – conducted a new analysis in 2024 and concluded that the estimated total project costs in 2023 prices had increased to €23.8 billion. The main reasons identified for the cost increase were the superficiality and lack of detail in previous estimates, as well as changes in the project structure. Therefore, those responsible for Rail Baltica at the time also emphasised that even the estimated costs for 2024 might not be entirely accurate, as detailed design studies had only been prepared for one-third of the total planned railway line. This was also confirmed by a joint report published in 2024 by the audit institutions of the Baltic States, which concluded that the implementation of the project was at risk. Given the significant increase in the cost of the project, it was decided to implement the Rail Baltica project in two phases – in the first phase, by 2030, it is planned to build a single-track railway instead of a double-track railway. This plan envisages that the total cost of the first phase would be EUR 15.3 billion, of which EUR 6.4 billion would be spent in Latvia. The second phase of the project should see the completion of the entire railway, but there is no strict timetable for this. And, given that the work schedule has been extended, it is likely that after the completion of the second phase, the cost of Rail Baltica will exceed €23.8 billion, according to the European Court of Auditors. European auditors have concluded that the Rail Baltica project and the Lyon-Turin rail link are the main culprits behind the significant cost increases of EU transport megaprojects. Since the very first cost estimates for Rail Baltica, costs have risen by 291%, according to the audit report. EU auditors have changed their assessment of the 2030 target for completing the European transport network. Five years ago, it was "unlikely to be achieved," and now the auditors have concluded that "it is clear that it will not be achieved." The latest report from the European Court of Auditors also indicates that the Rail Baltica project will be delayed even more than previously planned. "The information provided in the report on costs and delays relates to the first phase of the project. There are many unknowns regarding the second phase of the project – no project completion schedule is available. Taking this into account, further delays are also possible, but there is no concrete evidence of this at present," Guido Fara, senior auditor at the European Court of Auditors, explained to the portal LSM.lv. The auditors analysed the Rail Baltica project as a whole, rather than in the context of each Baltic country, so they were unable to indicate which country is making the most progress in implementing the railway project. However, compared to the previous report in 2020, the project as a whole is accompanied by increasing uncertainty.