Q4 2025 Earnings: S&P 500 Beats Expectations, Magnificent 7 Trails, Small Caps Surge

The second week of fourth-quarter earnings season begins this week. 31 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report, with more banks and expanding into other industries. Notable companies scheduled to release earnings include: 3M (MMM), Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Intel (INTC) Earnings Season At A Glance According to FactSet, 79% of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings above the consensus estimates, with 7% of companies having released results. Earnings Estimates Summary Companies reporting and combining actual results with consensus estimates for companies yet to report, the S&P 500’s blended earnings growth rate for the quarter is at 8.2% year-over-year, below the 8.3% expectations at the end of the quarter. Notably, the expected earnings growth rate for calendar year 2026 is 14.9%. Market Performance The S&P 500 declined modestly last week. The Magnificent 7, consisting of Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), underperformed. After years of underperformance, small-cap stocks have made a strong showing so far this year. Magnificent 7 Because technology companies are critical drivers of earnings growth and account for a significant percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, the Magnificent 7 remains the group to watch this earnings season. The first few companies in the Magnificent 7 are scheduled to report results next week. Earnings Insights By Sector Positive earnings surprises from the financial sector were offset by downward revisions in the energy and health care sectors. Despite better earnings from most banks last week, the sector was lower. The financial sector was a strong performer in 2025, but there is legislative risk amid President Trump's threat to cap credit card interest rates. There are low odds of a cap on credit card rates getting through Congress, but the banks' relatively full valuations are probably a larger headwind. Revenue Results By Sector Mixed sales growth results in the financial sector left expected revenue growth unchanged last week and equal to the expectations at the end of the quarter, according to FactSet. Dollar Weakness The US dollar weakened relative to the same quarter in the previous year. On the margin, this should benefit companies’ international earnings. According to FactSet, 42% of S&P 500 sales are from international sources. Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% depreciation in the US dollar increases S&P 500 earnings per share by 2-3%. Furthermore, companies tend to have an easier time outperforming consensus sales growth estimates during periods of US dollar weakness. Notably, the technology sector has the highest international sales exposure of all the S&P 500 sectors. What To Watch Next Week Earnings should be the main event during the holiday-shortened trading week. There are some economic releases, but most are still being impacted by the government shutdown. Despite ongoing softness in the labor market, the better-than-expected retail sales report last week provided more evidence that the US economy remains resilient, lowering the odds of a 2026 recession. Political rumblings, including the Supreme Court's upcoming ruling on tariffs, credit card rate caps, Iran, and the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell, could impact markets this week. Economic data continues to be impacted by the aftershocks of the government shutdown, which should draw further attention to corporate earnings and guidance as a read-through for the economy.