Russia's War in Ukraine: A Complete Strategic Failure for Putin

Stubb noted that after four years of war against Ukraine, Russia’s economy is in dire straits, marked by high inflation and heavy human losses. The Finnish president added that he is more concerned not about Russia’s ability to end this war — as it continues to move forward — but about its unwillingness to do so, as it cannot afford to stop. Stubb said that the war had become a complete strategic failure for President Putin, noting that it had led to NATO’s expansion, strengthened Ukraine’s European path, and prompted European states to increase their defense budgets. He added that Europe is capable of defending itself. Russia’s economy Russia’s economy ended 2025 with catastrophic indicators: oil prices fell to a five-year low, while the space industry regressed to the level of 1961. In January 2026, Russia’s oil and gas revenues almost halved due to a decline in the ruble price of oil and the strengthening of the ruble. Intelligence agencies have also reported that this year, Russia’s economy is entering a phase of "high-cost money," which is becoming the new normal amid the war against Ukraine and prolonged macroeconomic instability. Earlier, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Russia’s economy had fallen into a trap of non-performing loans that could trigger a collapse. The problem is acknowledged even by the Russian government — in effect, the Kremlin has already confirmed a high likelihood of a banking crisis and a wave of corporate payment defaults. The key factor is the hidden growth of bad debt. Even including restructured loans, the real volume of problematic debt has already exceeded 11%, reaching approximately $131 billion. According to intelligence data, since early 2022, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has cost Russian taxpayers $550 billion.