Memory Crisis Forces PC Vendor Consolidation & Market Reshape

Industry analysts warn survival of smaller brands at stake as component shortages force strategic shift toward premium systems. The PC market's strong finish to 2025—with Q4 shipments jumping 9.6% year-over-year to 76.4 million units—masks an emerging crisis that could fundamentally alter the competitive landscape over the next two years, according to IDC's latest quarterly tracker data. While headline numbers show the market growing 8.1% for the full year, reaching 284.7 million units, industry researchers are sounding the alarm about memory shortages that threaten to squeeze smaller and regional vendors out of the market entirely. The shortage is already prompting major manufacturers to announce price increases and could force a retreat to lower memory specifications across product lines. "Memory shortages are affecting the entire industry, and the impact will likely reshape market dynamics over the next two years," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Large consumer electronics brands are well positioned to leverage their scale and memory allocations to capture shares from smaller and regional vendors. However, the severity of the shortage raises the risk that smaller brands may not survive." The warning comes as the holiday quarter reflected unusual market dynamics. Beyond typical seasonal demand, vendors accelerated inventory purchases in response to early-year tariff concerns and emerging memory shortages, creating a surge that may not reflect underlying demand strength. Premium pivot as component costs climb The memory constraint is forcing a strategic recalibration across the industry. IDC expects average selling prices (ASPs) to rise in 2026 as vendors prioritize midrange and premium systems to offset higher component costs. While total unit shipments may soften, overall market value is projected to increase as the supply chain adjusts pricing. "Beyond the obvious pressure on prices of systems, already announced by certain manufacturers, we might also see PC memory specifications be lowered on average to preserve memory inventory on hand," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The year ahead is shaping up to be extremely volatile." This shift toward higher-margin products could particularly impact channel partners and enterprise buyers managing refresh cycles, as budget-conscious purchases become harder to source. Market share gains reflect scale advantages The Q4 data already shows how scale is becoming decisive. Lenovo extended its lead with 25.3% market share after 14.4% year-over-year growth, while Dell Technologies posted the strongest performance among top vendors with 18.2% growth, capturing 15.3% of the market. HP Inc maintained its second-place position with 20.1% share following 12.1% growth, while Apple remained essentially flat at 0.2% growth despite the broader market expansion. ASUS rounded out the top five with 10.9% growth. The "Others" category—comprising smaller and regional brands—managed just 1.5% growth in Q4, the weakest performance among all segments and a potential harbinger of the consolidation IDC anticipates. Windows 10 end-of-life drives upgrade wave The strong 2025 performance was significantly boosted by the end of support for Windows 10, which drove enterprise and consumer upgrade cycles. However, this one-time catalyst may be largely exhausted entering 2026, leaving the market more exposed to the headwinds from component shortages. Overall, the convergence of memory constraints, rising prices, and potential specification downgrades presents planning challenges. Organizations managing multi-year refresh cycles may need to reassess timing and budgets, while DIY enthusiasts and smaller system builders could find themselves priced out or facing extended lead times. The memory situation threatens to create another supply-constrained environment reminiscent of recent semiconductor shortages, with component suppliers, PC manufacturers, and channel partners all adjusting pricing to capture revenue opportunities amid tightening availability.