Nigeria's Decade of Gas Programme: Driving Output and Investment

Nigeria’s Decade of Gas programme has recorded measurable gains over the past two years, with rising gas output, renewed investor confidence and increased infrastructure activity signalling a path towards the country’s goal of becoming a gas-powered economy by 2030. Data from a factsheet by the Decade of Gas Office, made available to The Guardian, show that gas production increased from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 7.5 bcfd in 2025, while domestic gas supply crossed the 2 bcfd threshold for the first time in Nigeria’s history. More than 1 bcfd of additional gas supply was also unlocked through final investment decisions and firm gas supply agreements, with export gas volumes returning to 2021 levels. The gains come nearly four years after the Decade of Gas programme was initiated and launched on March 29, 2021, under former President Muhammadu Buhari to drive growth and transform Nigeria into a gas-powered economy by 2030. At the time, the initiative was widely viewed as ambitious and unlikely to meet its targets, amid concerns about the government’s preparedness to fully harness the country’s vast gas resources. However, the trajectory has shifted over the last two years under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, with the programme’s coordination led by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources (Gas). Since the Minister of State, Ekperikpe Ekpo, assumed office, several milestones have been recorded across key segments of the gas value chain. Confidence in the gas-to-power segment has also improved following presidential approval for the settlement of approximately N185 billion, equivalent to over $500 million, in outstanding debts owed by the power sector to gas producers for nearly 12 years. Upstream investment has increased, with three final investment decisions, Iseni, Ubeta and Hi reached between 2023 and 2025, mobilising over $2 billion towards a long-term investment target of $30 billion by 2030. Nigeria has strengthened its global gas advocacy profile by securing leadership positions within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), including the presidency of the GECF Ministerial Meeting in 2026, the position of Secretary-General, and representation by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on the forum’s executive board. On the domestic front, 2025 recorded a reduction in the domestic gas base price from $2.42 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to $2.13/MMBtu, reflecting efforts to balance affordability with sustained investment. A ministerial directive mandating increased liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production was issued to deepen household supply, alongside the launch of two pilot export redirection programmes under the LPG grassroots penetration initiative. Progress was also recorded under the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF), with governing council approval secured to finance more than 20 critical gas infrastructure projects valued at over N287 billion. More than 50 per cent of the funds have been disbursed, with projects at various stages of construction. Infrastructure delivery by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) advanced during the period, including completion of the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline river crossing and mechanical welding works. The Escravos–Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS) recorded over 90 per cent availability in 2025, supplying gas to industries, while completion of the OB3 pipeline crossing is now projected for 2026. It is expected that the identification of more than 50 gas utilisation projects across the midstream and downstream segments could generate over four million jobs by 2030.