Natera (NTRA) Valuation Soars with AI Oncology & Robust 2025 Growth Guidance

Natera (NTRA) is back in focus after issuing guidance that points to a 39% year over year jump in Q4 revenue, projected 35% full year 2025 revenue growth, and fresh AI driven oncology updates. The past year has been eventful for Natera, with AI focused oncology partnerships, new clinical data readouts and expanded prenatal testing all coinciding with a 46.03% one year total shareholder return and a 22.61% 90 day share price return. This suggests momentum has been building despite some recent share price pullback. If breakthroughs in cancer and prenatal testing are on your radar, it could be a good time to see what else is moving among . With Natera guiding to US$2.3b in 2025 revenue, AI-heavy oncology partnerships, and a strong recent share price run, the key question now is whether the current valuation leaves upside on the table or if markets are already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 1.5% Undervalued The most followed narrative puts Natera's fair value at US$234.68, just above the last close at US$231.25, so it rests almost on top of the market price. Investment in new product launches (e.g., Fetal Focus NIPT, Signatera Genome, AI-based biomarkers) and a robust R&D pipeline positions Natera to capture growth from long-term trends in personalized medicine and early detection, underpinning future revenue expansion. Curious what kind of revenue path and margin shift support that valuation call? The narrative leans on accelerating earnings, richer profitability, and a premium future multiple. The detailed numbers are where the story really gets interesting. Result: Fair Value of $234.68 (ABOUT RIGHT) However, there is still real risk that heavy R&D and AI spending keeps profits under pressure, or that clinical, regulatory or reimbursement setbacks slow the growth story. Another View: Price To Sales Sends A Caution Flag While the popular narrative points to Natera trading close to fair value, the P/S ratio tells a different story. At 15.1x sales, the shares sit well above the US Biotechs industry at 12.1x, the peer average at 8.3x, and a fair ratio of 8.7x. That gap suggests investors are paying a heavy premium, so the real question is whether you are comfortable underwriting that much expectation in the current price. Build Your Own Natera Narrative If this narrative does not quite fit how you see Natera, you can review the numbers yourself and shape a custom view in minutes: . A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas? If Natera has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Put a few minutes into scanning other opportunities before the next wave of market moves passes you by. Spot potential value opportunities early and review that align with your view on cash flow strength and pricing. Explore companies involved in automation and algorithms by checking out related to artificial intelligence themes. Consider gaining exposure to digital assets through companies building businesses around blockchain and tokens with . This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.