Oscars 2026: Jessie Buckley a Strong Contender for Best Actress?

The nominations for the 2026 Oscars will, when they arrive at lunchtime on Thursday, certainly have an Irish presence. It involves no spoiler to reveal that Jessie Buckley, searing in Hamnet, is runaway favourite for best actress. Paul Mescal, her costar, will probably sneak into the supporting-actor race. Two Irish titles, Retirement Plan and Éiru, are on the shortlist of 15, announced before Christmas, for best animated short film. Andrew Scott has an outside chance of a supporting-actor nod for his turn as Richard Rodgers in the Irish coproduction Blue Moon. Richard Baneham, from Tallaght, will surely be again up in the visual-effects category for his work on the Avatar sequence. The producers Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe, of Element Pictures, could be listed in best picture for Bugonia. Away from parochial concerns, watch out for a possible (if not quite probable) shattering of the record for most nominations by a single title. Either One Battle After Another or Sinners – or both – could beat the current ceiling of 14. The record, set in 1950 by All About Eve, was subsequently equalled by Titanic and La La Land. Whatever the total, Sinners and One Battle After Another will surely be at the top of this year’s nomination table. Frankenstein and Hamnet look likely to come in second and third, with about 12 for the horror epic and 10 for the bereavement saga. It is also worth pondering how many films not in English will make it into the best-picture category. As in 2024, three such titles could land, so confirming a shift towards a more internationally inclined electorate. The Oscars take place in Hollywood on Sunday, March 15th. Here are 14 intriguing categories out of the full 24. All entries are listed in descending order of likely inclusion. Donald Clarke’s Academy Award nomination predictions Best picture One Battle After Another Sinners Hamnet Marty Supreme Frankenstein Sentimental Value The Secret Agent It Was Just an Accident Train Dreams Bugonia The top six seem certain. Waiting just outside the 10 are three commercial hits: Wicked: For Good, Weapons and F1. Avatar: Fire and Ash looks dead in its blue ditch, however. One Battle After Another has the momentum of a big film on a wide canvas, but Hamnet should not be ruled out for the win. Everywhere it goes it gathers fans among “ordinary viewers”. Potential shock nominee: Óliver Laxe’s Sirat (see the best-international-feature category below). Best director Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another Ryan Coogler, Sinners Chloé Zhao, Hamnet Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein You could reasonably argue that only Anderson and Coogler are safe. Don’t rule out Josh Safdie for the much-admired Marty Supreme. Panahi, Iranian winner of the Palme d’Or, gets the nod for It Was Just an Accident, as the directors’ branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has always been more open to colleagues from outside the United States. Best actress Jessie Buckley, Hamnet Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value Emma Stone, Bugonia Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue Four nailed down. Then it’s a toss-up between the veteran Hudson and the newcomer Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another. Buckley can probably reserve a place on the mantelpiece already, but Byrne, a popular actor, has won with a clutter of critics’ groups. Then again, this will probably be the only nomination for her film. Best actor Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another Wagner Maura, The Secret Agent Michael B Jordan, Sinners Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon Maura missed with the Bafta longlist, but his win at the Golden Globes confirms growing strength. Chalamet has been working the publicity circuit hard and will probably end up in a head to head with DiCaprio. This could well be the five. Hawke was liked in Blue Moon, and he does now count as a veteran. Best supporting actress Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another Amy Madigan, Weapons Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good I’m betting that Grande, unlike her costar Cynthia Erivo, will survive the critical mauling that dulled the Wicked sequel’s chances. If not, then Odessa A’zion from Marty Supreme is waiting. Wunmi Mosaku looks solid after a nomination at the Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild gongs). Best supporting actor Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein Sean Penn, One Battle After Another Paul Mescal, Hamnet Forget about it. Nobody else is getting in here. Tight competition. Anyone bar (sorry) Mescal could plausibly take the prize. If hurricanes strike and he doesn’t get nominated then his fellow Irishman Andrew Scott could score for Blue Moon. Best adapted screenplay One Battle After Another Hamnet Train Dreams Bugonia Frankenstein One Battle After Another, as a boss front-runner, will compete in every big category, but Hamnet has an undeniably “writerly” quality. If anything breaks this five it might be a rogue non-English-language title such as Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice. Best original screenplay Sinners Sentimental Value Marty Supreme It Was Just an Accident Sorry, Baby Maybe a sentimental pick here for Eva Victor’s ingenious, moving Sorry, Baby. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent, a best-picture probable, is just as likely. Best international feature The Secret Agent Sentimental Value It Was Just an Accident Sirat The Voice of Hind Rajab The first four were prize winners at Cannes. The Voice of Hind Rajab, a docudrama about the death of that Palestinian girl, won enormous ovations at Venice. The rising film here is Óliver Laxe’s thrilling, disturbing Sirat. Only Sentimental value won more at last weekend’s European Film Awards. Best animated feature K-Pop Demon Hunters Zootopia 2 Arco Elio Little Amélie or the Character of Rain No other Netflix title has been streamed more than K-Pop Demon Hunters. It is surely going to score big here. Zootopia 2, meanwhile, looks to have been the highest-grossing English-language release of 2025. Best casting One Battle After Another Sinners Marty Supreme Hamnet Weapons The fear was that this new category would simply reflect the voting for best picture. On the basis of little evidence, that is what we are here predicting. To be fair, One Battle After Another and Sinners did promote younger talent across the board in films with a huge array of characters. Best animated short Éiru Snow Bear Butterfly Forevergreen Autokar Here’s an interesting prospect. Cartoon Saloon, based in Kilkenny, has been nominated for four Oscars, but it has yet to win. Its best chance yet, perhaps, comes with Éiru, tale of an Iron Age warrior. Best film editing One Battle After Another Marty Supreme Sinners F1 A House of Dynamite This has always been unofficially the award for “most editing” (as well as another stealth best-picture vote). F1 and House of Dynamite satisfy that dubious requirement: racing cars and the end of the world. One Battle After Another is, however, still hectic enough to win. Best cinematography Sinners One Battle After Another Train Dreams Hamnet Frankenstein