Ghana's Mining Stability Shift: What It Means for Ahafo Gold

Ghana plans to phase out mining stability agreements, starting with Newmont’s Ahafo mine, Africa’s largest gold complex. Authorities plan to introduce higher gold royalties, with rates starting at 9% and rising to 12% if prices exceed $4,500 an ounce. The reform raises uncertainty for Newmont as it expands Ahafo’s production capacity beyond 850,000 ounces. With output of 798,000 ounces, the Ahafo mine emerged in 2024 as Africa’s largest gold-producing complex. U.S.-based Newmont Corp, which operates the site, commissioned a $950 million project last year to increase production. Ghana plans to gradually abolish so-called mining stability agreements, which authorities initially adopted to attract foreign investment and maximize long-term mining revenue. Reuters reported on Thursday, January 15, citing an interview with Isaac Tandoh, acting chief executive officer of the country’s Minerals Commission. The measure is expected to apply immediately to Ahafo, Africa’s largest gold mine, which Newmont Corp operates. Introduced in the early 2000s, mining stability agreements aimed to support mine development in Ghana by granting tax exemptions and other incentives to operators. The agreement covering Ahafo, initially signed in 2003, was revised in 2015 to limit fiscal benefits to seven years, compared with an unlimited regime previously. The framework also allowed a five-year extension in exchange for a new $300 million investment designed to increase output and extend the mine’s lifespan. As the agreement expired in December 2025, Tandoh rejected any possibility of renewal despite a request from Newmont. He said the decision followed repeated cases of abuse in the way mining companies applied these agreements. “The renewal of investment stability agreements will not happen […]. We have seen companies use revenue generated in Ghana to buy mines elsewhere while refusing to meet their most basic obligations, such as contributions to district assemblies. This cannot continue,” Reuters quoted Tandoh as saying. A new framework in sight To replace the stability agreements, the government plans to introduce a broader regulatory framework designed to increase economic returns for Ghana and ensure stricter compliance by mining companies. Authorities have not disclosed the detailed content of the new rules, but officials have already confirmed the introduction of new gold royalties. Specifically, Ghana plans to apply an initial royalty rate of 9%, which could rise to 12% if gold prices exceed $4,500 per ounce. By comparison, this structure more than doubles the variable royalties of 3% and 5% provided under Ahafo’s stability agreement. Newmont has not yet officially responded to the proposed changes, which have increased uncertainty around the mine’s operating model, even as the company plans to raise production. In 2025, Newmont commissioned the Ahafo North deposit at the site. The project required investment exceeding $900 million and is expected to integrate into the Ahafo complex, lifting production capacity to about 850,000 ounces over time. This level would exceed the 798,000 ounces produced in 2024, which already positioned Ahafo as Africa’s largest gold mine. While the market awaits possible communication from Newmont, the proposed reform comes amid a favorable environment for gold prices. Gold prices rose by about 70% in 2025 and have gained roughly 6% since the start of 2026, according to Trading Economics. After Newmont, other mining groups, including AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields, will see their stability agreements expire in 2027, according to available information. This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou