EU May Wield Economic Weapons Against US in Security Crisis, Says Expert

RIGA - In case of a serious security threat, the European Union (EU) could be forced to use its economic weapons against the US, Sandis Sraders, a member of the board of the Latvian Transatlantic Organization (LATO) and researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LAI), told LETA. In his opinion, during US President Donald Trump's second presidency, Europe probably did not fully appreciate his statements and how serious he is about his foreign policy goals. In the view of the researcher, the current situation is one in which members of the transatlantic community, which until now could be described as a family with shared values and security interests, are forced to think and act on the basis of the principles of international anarchy theory. "This means that the smaller NATO members have to organize themselves and even consider the use of military force in order to contain the foreign policy objectives of the leader of the NATO alliance, which in fact threatens to throw the world into a colonial-era mindset," the expert explained. Sraders noted that the US President's threats to EU countries, including through tariffs, are in fact calling on Europe to finally act united and strategically against the most important NATO ally and leader of the transatlantic community - the United States. In the expert's view, this action would be aimed at limiting the US turn against liberal democracy and against the world system that has allowed the US to be the world's leading power for a long time - militarily, economically, politically and, in particular, in the context of so-called soft power. "Trump's current foreign and security policies have destroyed what made the US a special country since 1945 and during the Cold War, when the US was able to build alliances and attract allies based on specific rules and norms that were respected even by a superpower like the US in the name of common interests," said the LATO board member. He agreed that Greenland could not be brought under US control unless Denmark voluntarily sold or relinquished the territory. The foreign policy expert assessed that the alternative would be a military takeover of Greenland, which would effectively mean the end of NATO. Sraders mentioned that EU countries, NATO European members and Canada are already moving their forces to Greenland, primarily to alleviate concerns that Trump has expressed about the security of Greenland and the US. In the expert's view, this is at the same time a clever combination of public diplomacy and military strategy aimed at deterring the US from using force and forcibly taking control of Greenland. "The US is capable of seizing Greenland militarily and no EU or NATO European Member State would be able to deter the US, as the US represents around 70-80 percent of NATO's total military capability. European countries are not capable of standing up to the US militarily", the researcher concluded. He stressed that this situation is a dream for Russia. In the short term, EU and NATO countries are forced to devote their military, political and diplomatic resources to deter US aggression - from rhetoric to threats of sanctions and even a possible military takeover of Greenland, as such discussions exist in Washington. This means that attention and resources are not being devoted to providing Ukraine with the necessary military equipment to deter Russian aggression, and in the short term Moscow is already the winner. In the longer term, if the escalation between NATO European countries, the US and Canada continues, the strategic winners will be not only Russia but also China, as neither Europe nor the US will be able to contain authoritarian regimes whose political logic is based on a return to colonial rule - where "big countries do what they want, but small countries suffer" and international law no longer works, Sraders said. The foreign policy expert pointed out that the growing influence of China and Russia in the Arctic has long been a subject recognized by the security services of Denmark, the US, Canada and the European Nordic countries. In his view, it has so far been coordinated and swift action by the EU and the US that has been the key instrument in preventing Russia and China from gaining geopolitical control over the Arctic. According to Sraders, Trump's rhetoric that US security and economic interests could be limited if the US cooperated with Europe to strengthen Greenland's security and reap economic benefits does not stand up to rational criticism. Neither Denmark nor any other country prevents US companies from operating in Greenland and there are no barriers to economic cooperation between European countries, Denmark and the US. The researcher therefore concludes that this rhetoric is aimed at annexing Greenland to the US, either by obtaining Denmark's willing consent or by force. According to the expert, EU countries are now increasingly faced with the fact that the US can, under certain circumstances, go from being a strategic ally to a security risk. At the same time, he reminded that the US has been calling on Europe to arm itself for more than 20-30 years, as the US alone cannot guarantee Europe's security and stability in the face of growing challenges from authoritarian regimes, including Russia and China, as well as from the Middle East. Europe has long relied on the US to provide security not only in Europe but also in the world, despite calls from various US administrations. Sraders stressed that the idea of European strategic autonomy has always existed, including in French rhetoric, but has remained largely declarative, as real strategic autonomy is only possible through a common, coordinated military capability, not through the policies of individual states. The EU has so far been unable to act in a sufficiently coordinated manner, but the current situation creates an unprecedented need to do so, since the threats to Europe from the simultaneous rhetoric of the US presidency, Russian aggression and Chinese ambitions are unprecedented in European history. "In the Baltic countries it is said that Russia cannot be understood with the mind, and at the moment it is also difficult to understand Trump's foreign and security actions with rational thinking, because he is doing everything to make the US less powerful militarily, economically and politically," said the LATO board member. He stressed that the US still retains its ability to be a world leader largely because Europe has restrained its actions against the US, even in situations where the US has acted against European interests. If Europe's security interests are seriously threatened, the EU could be forced to use its economic instruments against the US to curb Trump's "colonial fantasies", Sraders concluded. Thousands of people took to the streets of the Danish capital Copenhagen on Saturday to protest against the US President's bid to take over the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland. A day earlier, Trump warned that he "may impose tariffs" on countries that oppose his plans to take over Greenland.