China's Economy Surges: 5% GDP Growth Achieved in 2025

China’s GDP grew 5 per cent last year despite US President Donald Trump’s tariff war, as booming exports offset more anaemic growth in the domestic economy, according to official data. The full-year figure, which was in line with Beijing’s official target and the average of a survey of analysts by Bloomberg, came as GDP growth decelerated in the fourth quarter to 4.5 per cent, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The fourth quarter figure was in line with analyst forecasts but down from 4.8 per cent in the third quarter. The slowdown in the second half of the year will put pressure on Beijing to add more stimulus this year to meet an expected target of between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent for 2026 GDP growth. President Xi Jinping is due to preside over the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, in early March, at which Beijing will unveil the economic targets for the coming year. This year also marks the start of China’s next five-year plan, with economists expecting Beijing and local governments to make a determined effort to get growth off to a strong start with stimulus programmes. China’s fixed asset investment fell 3.8 per cent year on year in 2025, worse than analysts’ expectations of a 3.1 per cent fall and contrasting with growth of 3.2 per cent a year earlier. Retail sales rose 0.9 per cent year on year in December, short of analyst expectations of 1 per cent growth, and 3.7 per cent for the full year. Property investment sank 17.2 per cent last year against analyst forecasts of 16.5 per cent, as the country’s property downturn completed its fourth year with no sign of an end. New construction starts fell 20.4 per cent year on year. While indicators for the domestic economy remained weak, the manufacturing sector stormed ahead. Industrial production rose 5.2 per cent in December against a year earlier, compared to analyst forecasts of 5 per cent. China’s population declined for the fourth year running in 2025 by 3mn people to 1.405bn. Its birth rate was the lowest on record at 5.63 births per 1,000 people. With additional contributions from Wenjie Ding in Beijing