China's 2026 Export Shift to Africa Risks Trade Tensions, Oxford Warns

Chinese exporters may redirect excess supply to Africa in 2026 as U.S. market access tightens. China’s trade surplus with Africa rose 77% year on year to nearly $60 billion in the first eight months of 2025. African governments could respond with antidumping measures or stronger industrial policies to protect local producers. A sharp rise in Chinese exports to Africa, intended to offset lost market share in the United States, could generate trade tensions between China and African economies. Several African countries could respond by adopting antidumping measures against “Made in China” products or by implementing industrial policies designed to promote local production and consumption, according to a report published in mid-December 2025 by consultancy Oxford Economics. Titled “Watchlist 2026 – Sino-Africa tensions and stolen elections”, the report said export performance remained one of the few bright spots in China’s otherwise subdued economic outlook in 2025. As tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to reshape global trade, Chinese authorities have intensified efforts to pursue an export-led growth strategy and preserve the role of manufacturing, which historically accounts for about 25% of gross domestic product. To maintain this share, China needs export growth of between 3.5% and 5% per year in real terms. However, rising U.S. protectionism disrupted this trajectory. Between January and August 2025, Chinese exports to the United States fell 52% year on year. Export growth to other regions more than offset this decline. During the same period, Chinese exports to member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 56%, while shipments to Africa increased 28%. As a result, China’s trade surplus with Africa expanded 77% year on year to nearly $60 billion in the first eight months of 2025. Beyond the growing imbalance, the composition of trade has raised concerns. Raw materials accounted for nearly 90% of Africa’s exports to China, while manufactured goods represented about 50% of African imports from the Asian country. A threat to local industries? China’s trade surplus with Africa is not new, and the imbalance in value addition has concerned policymakers for years. From an African perspective, however, the scale of the challenge could intensify in 2026, as Beijing may seek to significantly increase exports to the continent. In June 2025, China proposed eliminating tariffs on imports from African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, in an effort to rebalance bilateral trade. However, authorities have not yet implemented the measure. In addition, African exporters continue to face high non-tariff barriers, strict quality and standards controls, and intense domestic competition in China. An increased influx of Chinese imports into Africa in 2026 could exert further pressure on local producers and slow industrialisation, given the competitive pricing of Chinese manufactured goods. Governments could respond by launching antidumping investigations and introducing gradual protectionist measures, including tariffs on locally produced goods and import quotas. The report said African governments should consider unilateral protectionist measures only in extreme circumstances, given China’s central role as a major investor and lender on the continent. The most likely response would involve support measures for local industries and industrial policies that encourage domestic investment. One option would focus on expanding special economic zones, which can address key constraints on competitiveness, such as high energy and transport costs. Governments should also intensify efforts to strengthen regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area. Stronger integration could improve the attractiveness of manufacturing investment in Africa and enhance the continent’s bargaining power in trade negotiations with China. This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi