Citigroup Forecasts Three Bank of Japan Rate Hikes in 2026 Due to Weak Yen

The Bank of Japan will potentially raise interest rates three times this year to double the current level if the yen’s weakness persists, according to Citigroup’s markets head for the country. Should the dollar rise above ¥160, the central bank is likely to lift the overnight call rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1% in April, Akira Hoshino said in an interview. He sees scope for another hike of the same size in July, and possibly a third by year-end if the Japanese currency stays low. “Put simply, the yen’s weakness is being driven by negative real interest rates,” Hoshino said, referring to a situation in which yields remain below inflation. The BOJ “has no choice other than to address this” if it wants to reverse the exchange rate’s direction, he said.