AVAH Valuation: Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Boosts 2025 Guidance & 2026 Targets

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) raised its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of US$2.425b to US$2.445b and issued higher preliminary 2026 targets, putting its home based care model firmly in focus for investors. Aveanna’s updated guidance comes after a mixed stretch in the market, with a 7 day share price return of 7.33% and a 90 day share price return of a 10.22% decline. Even so, the year to date share price return of 14.11% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest that momentum has been rebuilding over a longer horizon. If Aveanna’s guidance has you rethinking opportunities in home based care and medical services, this could be a good moment to look at as well. With Aveanna now guiding to US$2.425b to US$2.445b in 2025 revenue, a recent share price gain, and analysts’ targets sitting above the current US$9.22 level, is this a genuine value gap, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 13.4% Undervalued The most followed narrative sees Aveanna’s fair value at US$10.65 versus the last close at US$9.22, framing the current price as a discount that hinges on how future growth and margins play out. “The demographic shift toward an aging U.S. population and the rising prevalence of chronic conditions are expected to increase long-term demand for home and community-based care and skilled nursing, expanding Aveanna's total addressable market and underpinning multi-year top-line and EBITDA growth.” Curious what is baked into that valuation gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, higher margins, and a future earnings multiple below many current healthcare peers. At the core, this view applies a 7.26% discount rate to Aveanna’s expected cash flows, assumes revenue and earnings growth over several years, then capitalizes those earnings at a future P/E that is lower than what is currently cited for the wider US Healthcare industry. The result is a fair value that sits above today’s price, but it ultimately depends on the company reaching higher profitability and sustaining that earnings base. Result: Fair Value of $10.65 (UNDERVALUED) However, this hinges on Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement remaining supportive and on Aveanna managing its US$1.47b variable rate debt without putting pressure on earnings. Build Your Own Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Narrative If you see the assumptions differently or just prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build your own view in minutes, starting with . A great starting point for your Aveanna Healthcare Holdings research is our analysis highlighting that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you only stick with one stock, you could miss other opportunities that fit your style. Broaden your watchlist using a few focused screeners. Spot potential turnaround candidates early by scanning that pair low share prices with solid underlying financials. Consider the next wave of automation and data driven tools by checking out that are tied to artificial intelligence themes. Put value front and center by filtering for that align with discounted cash flow based metrics. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.