AGOA Extension: Africa's Strategic Opportunity to Diversify Supply Chains

The United States (U.S.) House of Representatives has approved a three-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), with the bill gaining strong bipartisan support ahead of Senate consideration. While AGOA has historically been framed as a market-access initiative, its latest extension is increasingly positioned as a strategic economic tool – one aimed at reshaping global critical mineral supply chains and diluting China’s dominance across Africa. As global competition for African minerals continues to grow, a central question remains: can AGOA move beyond tariff preferences to become a catalyst for U.S.-led mineral development and export diversification in Africa? Why African Minerals, Why Now Critical minerals sit at the intersection of geopolitics, industrial policy and energy transition economics, and Africa – which holds 30% of global reserves – is at the center of these discussions. The continent is home to 55% of global cobalt reserves, 80% of platinum, 62% chromium and 25% natural graphite, as well as substantial lithium, copper and rare earth deposits. Southern and Central Africa hold particular significance, with countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe hosting large-scale, high-grade critical mineral reserves. While these nations have been producing for several decades, the majority of their critical mineral potential remains underexploited, constrained by limited downstream processing, infrastructure bottlenecks and historically narrow export pathways. The DRC’s Minister of Mines Louis Watum Kabamba told Energy Capital & Power at African Mining Week 2025 that 90% of the country’s mineral reserves remain unexploited. “The opportunities are huge. Less than 10% of our mineral endowment is under exploration or being exploited. We have opportunities in greenfield exploration as well as investment [opportunities] in existing assets – some of which are in financial distress and need capital,” he said. This highlights a significant investment opportunity for international partners. Strategic Minerals, Strategic Realignment AGOA’s extension signals a unique opportunity for African nations to address industry challenges. For the U.S., the extension can counteract China’s dominance across Africa’s mineral market. Congressional debate around the extension explicitly referenced China’s estimated $10 billion footprint across African mineral supply chains, spanning long-term offtake agreements, refinery ownership and transport corridors. The AGOA extension, lawmakers argued, offers preferential market access as leverage to encourage alternative partnerships that reduce single-market dependency and diversify Africa’s export options. Its renewal also aligns closely with a Strategic Partnership Agreement signed between the U.S. and the DRC in December 2025, which places critical minerals at the core of bilateral cooperation, linking trade, investment and supply-chain security under a single framework. The partnership has already materialized, with the DRC exporting 100,000 tons of copper to the U.S. in January 2026. A key pillar of the partnership is the DRC’s Strategic Asset Reserve (SAR) – a policy instrument designed to safeguard priority mineral resources, secure reliable offtake partners and promote value-adding investment aligned with Western supply-chain standards. When paired with AGOA’s duty-free access to the U.S. market, SAR strengthens the commercial case for American participation in African mining projects. Strengthened Logistics, Rebalanced Exports Trade policy alone, however, cannot realign supply chains without parallel investment in logistics. Historically, African minerals have flowed eastward through infrastructure aligned with Chinese demand and processing capacity. Breaking that pattern requires physical alternatives. This is where the Lobito Corridor becomes strategically significant. Connecting the mineral belts of the DRC and Zambia to Angola’s Port of Lobito, the corridor provides a westward export route. Backed by U.S. and European partners, Lobito is viewed as the logistical backbone of a reoriented transatlantic minerals trade – and an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Global commitments to the corridor have surpassed $6 billion, underscoring its significance in a global context. Crucially, AGOA does not seek to displace China from Africa’s mining sector. Instead, it introduces competitive balance. By expanding export options and end-markets, African producers gain the ability to price risk, diversify partnerships and retain greater value domestically. With the extension limited to three years, AGOA’s latest iteration represents a narrow but consequential window. If aligned with initiatives such as the SAR and Lobito Corridor, it could help convert Africa’s mineral endowment into strategic leverage – supporting industrial development while reshaping global supply chains.