Africa's Economy Set to Outpace Asia in Historic 2026 Growth

The International Monetary Fund predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, compared to Asia's 4.1 percent. Africa's stable outlook is supported by a weak dollar, lower debt pressure and high commodity prices for gold and copper. Demographics favor Africa: By 2050, one in four people on Earth will be African. Favorable external conditions If the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections hold, 2026 will be a historic year. For the first time in modern history, the 54 African economies are expected to grow faster than their Asian counterparts. The Financial Times published an analysis on Monday pointing to this shift. According to the IMF, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase its growth from about 4.1 percent to roughly 4.4 percent. This despite ongoing wars, insurgencies and political instability in parts of the continent. Several factors contribute to Africa's stable outlook. A weak US dollar makes it easier to pay off debts and reduces inflationary pressure. At the same time, commodity prices are high, particularly for gold and copper. Asia, on the other hand, is expected to slow to around 4.1 percent in 2026. This is mainly because China, the region's largest economy, is losing momentum. China's economy matures The Financial Times recalls that China had near double-digit growth decades ago. In 1978, the country's economy was worth 150 billion dollars. Today it approaches 20 trillion dollars. But such growth rates are no longer possible. The economy has matured and the workforce is aging. The Chinese slowdown drags down Asia's weighted average and opens the door for Africa to pass. Uneven development across the continent Growth in Africa is not evenly distributed. Countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana and Mauritius have recorded several years of strong growth. Nigeria and Egypt are expected to grow in line with the continental average. South Africa lags behind. The Financial Times cautions against interpreting the figures as a return of the "Africa Rising" narrative from the early 2000s. Population growth absorbs a large share of overall growth. This leaves limited per capita gains. The newspaper notes that growth of 4 or 5 percent is not particularly impressive. At least 7 percent sustained growth would be needed to replicate the structural transformation that East Asia underwent. The Sahel region reshapes its relationships Another development is shaping Africa's political economy, particularly in the Sahel. Since 2020, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have undergone military-led political transitions. The new authorities present the changes as a way to reclaim national sovereignty. The three countries have collectively left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). They have rejected sanctions and external pressure. Western military forces have been expelled or withdrawn from the central Sahel. The juntas have formed the Alliance of Sahel States as an alternative to Western-backed regional frameworks. They have also diversified their partnerships toward non-Western actors, including Russia and Turkey, in both security cooperation and economic engagement. Demographics favor Africa The Financial Times concludes by placing Africa's outlook in a global demographic context. By 2050, more than one in four people in the world will be African. The continent will then have a larger working-age population than China and India combined. World Bank and IMF regional analyses confirm the picture. Africa's growth resilience reflects macroeconomic stabilization and reforms in several countries. But per capita incomes are increasing slowly and vulnerability remains high due to limited fiscal space and heavy debt burdens.