Africa's 2025: Restless Youth Question Resilient Growth

By Abdul Tejan-Cole For Africa, 2025 was a year of stark contrasts. Economic resilience shone through global headwinds, with growth holding steady at around 3.8 - 4.1%, driven by infrastructure investments, market reforms and recoveries in powerhouse economies like Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa. Yet, this progress coexisted with deepening political dissatisfaction, escalating conflicts, and persistent social challenges, from disinformation-fuelled elections to surging cyber threats and health crises. From the ballot box to the battlefield, 2025 tested the continent's governance structures. Whilst leaders spoke of stability, citizens saw something different. Youth-led protests in Kenya, Tanzania, Morocco and beyond demanded better governance amid economic hardships, floods displacing millions, and debt squeezing social spending. Politically, 2025 was marked by high-stakes elections and widespread unrest. Across many capitals, elections stirred anger rather than trust, with violence and crackdown in Tanzania, unrest in Cameroon after Paul Biya’s disputed victory. Fragile transitions in Côte d'Ivoire and Gabon saw a limited democratic transition, while Guinea-Bissau slipped back under military control following a fabricated coup and sparked regional concern over the collapse of basic democratic norms. Seychelles and Malawi offered glimpses of open competition. Institutional shifts included Djibouti's Mahamoud Ali Youssouf as new AU Commission Chairperson, defeating Kenya’s Raila Odinga, who passed away leaving a void in Kenyan opposition politics. Geopolitical competition intensified, with a transactional U.S. approach under Trump raising questions on aid, tariffs, sanctions and trade like AGOA renewal. South Africa clashed with the U.S. over G20 issues but secured mineral deals with China and the EU. Continental institutions faltered. The AU’s financial independence agenda stalled and its peace operations faced funding shortages after cuts from the EU and the UN, member states fell behind on contributions and ECOWAS weakened after the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Across the continent, security threats multiplied, with Sudan’s war worsening and pushing more than eleven million people from their homes and a massacre in El Fasher, while the Sahel’s armed groups expanded into new regions and fuelled fear across coastal states, and eastern DRC suffered intense fighting involving M23 and other forces despite diplomatic manoeuvres. Nigeria endured large-scale violence that overwhelmed local authorities and forced calls for a unified national response, while Somalia’s offensives achieved gains yet faced funding gaps and new external actors who pursued influence through military and commercial deals. New actors like the UAE deepened influence through arms deals and ports, positioning as a "stabilizing power" amid multipolar shifts. Social cohesion weakened as poverty deepened, work remained scarce, and demographic pressure pushed communities into confrontation over land, water and opportunity, while climate disasters such as cyclones and floods exposed slow progress in preparation and early warning. Food shortages hit households in the Horn, Sahel and southern Africa, with higher fertiliser costs, weak currencies and poor harvests pushing hunger upward, while governments still struggled to meet continental commitments on agricultural investment. Economic momentum persisted, as AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area) expanded trade links, e-commerce grew towards projected levels near US$ 180 Billion, and major infrastructure projects signalled renewed ambition, although high debt vulnerabilities loomed large, with public debt averaging over 60% of GDP and servicing costs absorbing 40% of revenues in many nations. Aid cuts from development partners exacerbated fiscal squeezes, while poverty persisted, affecting over 464 million people. Growth often failed to translate into jobs, with youth unemployment fueling discontent. In Senegal, an audit revealed debt at 132% of GDP, complicating IMF talks amid the Faye-Sonko feud. Clean energy gained support through large financing pledges and stronger commitments from global partners, and new policies on critical minerals encouraged more domestic value addition, as seen in efforts by Ghana and Mali to strengthen control over gold. Health systems continued to sink under outbreaks of cholera, measles, and other diseases, while long-running programmes for HIV, TB and malaria struggled with reduced external support. Women’s rights groups fought setbacks on reproductive health access. Justice, rights and civic space shrank, with courts pressured in Kenya, Ghana, Uganda and Senegal. Laws restricting NGOs, unions and media tightened in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt. Governments faced criticism for slow progress on rights, fair access and protection of civil liberties. The outlook for 2026 offers prospects for steadier growth supported by infrastructure and regional trade, with green energy, minerals, and youth innovation likely to shape new opportunities, although risks from debt distress, conflict spill-overs, political tensions, and climate shocks threaten to erode progress if leaders fail to respond with honesty and urgency. Stability in Nigeria, the continent’s largest population and economy (by total GDP) will depend on decisive action on security. Sudan’s future rests on sustained diplomatic engagement, South Africa heads towards local polls under internal party strain, and digital regulation across the continent needs coherence after repeated outages, surveillance practices, and weak safeguards harmed public confidence. Africa’s experience in 2025 taught us that growth alone is not enough. It must align with good governance and social justice. In 2026, seizing opportunities in trade, green energy, and youth empowerment could turn the demographic dividend into a boon, not a bomb. The continent's future hinges on bold, African-led reforms. Success hinges on confident African-led reforms that place dignity, fairness and opportunity at the centre of public life. Note: Abdul Tejan-Cole is a lawyer and an independent consultant.